Around this time last year I wrote a post saying that Turkey’s choice to provide the Free Syrian Army with rebel bases heightened the risk of civil war in Syria and war between Syria and Turkey. I cited research by Idean Salehyan to this effect.
Incidentally, Idean has chimed in over at Political Violence @ a Glance to help us understand why Turkey and Syria are now engaged in border skirmishes that threaten to escalate to war between the two countries–and maybe others.
Idean’s take on the source of the dispute: refugee flows and rebel sanctuary, initiating a chain reaction of retaliatory violence.
Saw this one coming. Just sayin’.